It's hard to imagine now, but when DVD first launched, its success was far from guaranteed. Back in 1996, there were even anti-DVD fanboys, and recently we ran into a rant--sarcastically retitled as "Why DVD would fail"--that struck us as eerily familiar to the current arguments against Blu-ray. Considering that DVD was such a huge success, it's worth looking at exactly how similar the two formats are at this early stage, and what that means for the future of Blu-ray.
1. Consumers aren't willing to rebuy movies
They will be the same tired movies that everyone already owns and will be loathe to buy again. [...] Because the titles available will be ones that people already own, they will naturally sell less than a new release that is still hot from the theaters. This will result in even a bigger cost for companies because the less they sell, the more each feature costs to implement on each title.
Right. Just like nobody repurchased their albums on CD or VHS tapes on DVD. This one seems to get dragged out for every new format and is quickly ignored once it takes off. We're not saying that people will rush to replace their DVDs with Blu-ray discs, but it seems obvious consumers eventually give in and repurchase media if the new format is worthwhile. The only difference we'd note is that well-kept DVDs don't deteriorate after use like VHS tapes did, so perhaps consumers will be somewhat less likely to replace their DVDs that still look as good as the day they bought them.
Verdict: Same argument now used against Blu-ray.
2. Not enough movies… Read more